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October 13, 1999
The Stock Watch
By John Hansen
The Guru's Fantasy Football Report
 
John Hansen published The Guru Report, which cranks out three comprehensive fantasy info reports each week. For more information on the report, and to view a FREE REPORT published 9/28, visit: http://www.fantasyguru.com/football

While interest rates, inflation, and unrest in Pakistan led to a plunge of 231 points in the DJIA and a swoon of 43.5 points in the red-hot Nasdaq index this week, the fantasy market continues to be shaken by one factor: injuries. 

And that's all we really care about, isn't it? 

In addition to our normal downgrades, we've added a new category, the injury downgrade, because this market trend is getting out of control. So while you take in our current market commentary, please be careful not to sprain your index finger scrolling down the page or pulling your back out grabbing paper out of your printer.

Upgrades
Last week's upgrades who continue to climb: Cecil Collins (RB, Mia), Curtis Conway (WR, Chi), Kevin Johnson (WR, Cle)

Last week's upgrade whose value has slipped: Ricky Williams (RB, NO), Shane Matthews (QB, Chi) 

New Upgrades:
Dorsey Levens (RB, GB) - The Packers cannot continue to play in these incredibly close slugfests, so they'll likely focus on Levens as much as they can in the future. If the last few weeks are any indication, and we think they are, Levens is just getting started.

Eric Moulds (WR, Buf) - He's finally heating up, and there's no reason his dominance will not continue. There's only one wide receiver in the AFC we'd rather have, and it's Marvin Harrison.

Bill Schroeder (WR, GB) - What a terrific player. Schroeder has used his great speed to get downfield, and, most importantly, he's making plays. He has the confidence of QB Brett Favre (who looks for him very often) and he's really grown as a player this past year. If he can stay healthy, he's a great guy to have in your back pocket.

Cecil Collins (RB, Mia) - An upgrade only a week ago, Collins' stock is still on the rise after he ran well against a good Colt defense. Helping his cause further is fellow rookie James Johnson, who fumbled this past week. If Collins stays healthy and focused, he'll be a top-10 fantasy back. Didn't everyone see this coming? And to think that the Falcons drafted Arizona State's Jeff Paulk ahead of Collins.

Duce Staley (RB, Phi) - If anyone had any doubts about Staley's value to this team, those thoughts should have been wiped away after the Eagles were running Staley on sure passing situations as they drove toward a game-winning score against the Cowboys. If the Eagles can generate any pass offense at all, their defense should keep them in the game, and Staley wouldn't be focused on as much. If those two things happen, then he'll be okay. 

Troy Edwards (WR, Pit) - Slowly but surely, Edwards is working his way into the Steeler offense. It's hard to envision his exploding at any point this season with Kordell Stewart at the helm, but he should be a solid producer, and he may still wind up with double-digit TD's.

Neil O'Donnell (QB, Ten) - It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Titans will stick with O'Donnell once Steve McNair returns from his back injury. Stranger things have happened. But if the Titans continue to win, O'Donnell just may stay in as the starter.

David Boston (WR, Ari) - Boston was a downgrade last week and rightfully so -- he had done absolutely nothing up until that point. However, Boston had a breakthrough game last week, and he may have had an even bigger game had the Cardinals not gone so conservative and with QB Dave Brown coming in late in the game.

Herman Moore (WR, Det) - Moore should finally return to action for the Lions this week, and the Lions sure need him.

Carl Pickens (WR, Cin) - Okay, maybe we jumped the gun by listing him as a downgrade last week. Pickens is coming along in terms of getting back into game shape, and we saw the return of the alley-oop TD pass to Pickens this past Sunday.

Jonathan Linton (RB, Buf) - With the game still close, the Bills ran Linton -- not Antowain Smith -- to keep the chains moving. While Linton carried the ball 11 times in the second half, Smith carries only 4 times for 9 yards. At this point, Linton is much more of a consistent runner than Smith. And now that he seem to have conquered his preseason fumbling problem, he may be the team's starting back very soon.

Michael Pittman (RB, Ari) - Pittman is another guy working his way into the lineup. He's not going to start this week, but if Adrian Murrell comes up small against the porous Redskin defense, he may just take over the starting job. It would very interesting to see what Pittman can do with 20-25 carries. Our guess is that he'd do pretty well. 

Jay Riemersma (TE, Buf) - Riemersma is getting more and more looks from QB Doug Flutie. With all the uncertainty surrounding the league's usual stars at the position, Riemersma is easily a top-10 fantasy TE.

Akili Smith (QB, Cin) - Smith had a great pro debut this past week. If he continues against teams other than the Browns, he may be a decent performer. He does have a solid supporting cast around him.

Olandis Gary (RB, Den) - All things considered, Gary's pro debut was solid, and he should continue to get playing time. Will Derek Loville hurt and average to begin with, Gary could easily be the team's featured back from here on out. 

Ernie Mills (WR, Dal) - Mills has been relatively quiet this season, but he'll see an expanded role with Michael Irvin out. Mills knows the offense, and he was a solid contributor last year, so he may be good for 60-70 yards and a game and a score every other game.

Byron Chamberlain (TE, Den) - With Shannon Sharpe out for a while, Chamberlain takes over as the starter in Denver. He's been a prospect of Mike Shanahan's for a few years now, and some feel Chamberlain is a better fit for the Bronco offense, so he should be a solid producer. Some insiders feel that Chamberlain will the team's starter the rest of the season and beyond. 

Downgrades
Last week's downgrades whose value has continued to slip: Natrone Means (RB, SD), Andre Rison (WR, KC), Priest Holmes (RB, Bal), Bert Emanuel (WR, TB), Adrian Murrell (RB, Ari), Jeff Blake (QB, Cin)

Last weeks' downgrade whose value has risen: Carl Pickens (WR, Cin)

INJURY DOWNGRADES:
Shannon Sharpe (TE. Den) - Sharpe will likely miss at least eight weeks.

Michael Irvin (WR, Dal) - Obviously, Irvin's stock has plummeted, although the team says he will play again this season.

Shane Matthews (QB, Chi) - Matthews has been ruled out of this week's game against the Eagles. And if rookie Cade McNown does well, Matthews may never regain his starting job.

Steve Young (QB, SF) - Young is expected to miss another game this week. ESPN's Chris Mortensen is reporting that Young suffered dizzy spells this week, and friends and family have urged him to retire. Mortensen also reports that Young's concussion actually occurred during the Saint game, which was two weeks from this past Sunday.

Cris Carter (WR, Min) - Carter toughed out last week's game against the Bears but he was clearly favoring his sore hip.After the game, he was seen limping badly into the locker room. His status for this week is unknown, but this injury could be a lingering one.

Billy Jo Hobert (QB, NO) - Hobert re-injured his neck this week but was able to return. However, this is a two-week injury, so he's going to be a risk to start until he goes a few full games without any problems.

NEW DOWNGRADES:
Randall Cunningham (QB, Min) - Clearly, Cunningham has lost a lot of the confidence he had last year. He's still putting up decent numbers, but he's making too many mistakes and is coming up small when his team needs him. If this trend continues, the team will have to take a look at Jeff George. Remember that Cunningham has already shown signs that he's not capable of leading the Vikings to a championship game.

Mark Brunell (QB, Jac) - Jaguar RB James Stewart could run for 100 yards a week and Brunell would probably still be a so-so fantasy producer because defenses don't respect the Stewart like they do Fred Taylor. Without the home run threat of Taylor, defenses are bearing down on Brunell and taking away the deep passing game to WR Jimmy Smith. In addition, the Jag defense is keeping the team ahead of its games, so Brunell hasn't had to throw as much as previous years.

Eddie George (RB, Ten) - Okay, now that George has failed to find the endzone as a receiver, it's officially time to worry about his lack of production on the ground. The man has not had any room to run whatsoever. Making matters worse, the Titans gave FB Lorenzo Neal a goal line carry that he converted. Speaking of Neal, does anyone notice that wherever Neal goes, he's supposed to be that team's savior, but he's always on another team the next year or two?

Derrick Alexander (WR, KC) - Not only has Alexander been a forgotten man the last three weeks, but he's also now banged up with a rib contusion. Plus it's tough to depend on any Chief player for weekly production, and Alexander is a streaky player on a bad streak. 

Kevin Dyson (WR, Ten) - Ever since Neil O'Donnell took over at QB, Dyson has been pretty quiet, as O'Donnell prefers to throw to his old buddy Yancey Thigpen. Until that trend stops showing form, you may want to bench Dyson.

Tyrone Davis (TE, GB) - Here's a guy we were wrong about. In the preseason, Davis was getting all kinds of looks in the red zone, and he made some plays. But so far this year, he's been a complete non-factor, and now he's going to have to come back from a concussion. 

Ken Oxendine (RB, Atl) - This Falcon RB job will likely be a seesaw battle all year, but Oxendine did little to distinguish himself this past week. In fact, he fumbled twice. And when the Falcons went to run out the clock last week, they went to Byron Hanspard

James Jett (WR, Oak) - Although the entire Raider offense is struggling a little, Jett seems to be the worse off, as he starting to once again look like a guy who's good for only the occasional deep pass-and that's not going to cut it in this offense.

Courtney Hawkins (WR, Pit) - Granted, this offense is tough to figure out, but it certainly looks like Hawkins is losing more and more time to Troy Edwards.

Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green (WR's, Ind) - Who is this Terrance Wilkins guy and where did he come from? Well, he's an undrafted rookie out of Virginia who was the receiver of choice for the Colts in replacing the injured Green. Wilkins is a lot like Steeler WR Troy Edwards in that he's a slippery little guy who makes plays after the catch. The Colts will definitely continue to get him involved, as he presents a match-up problem for defenses over the middle of the field. The bottom line is that his emergence will dip into Green's and Pathon's production. 

Bobby Engram (WR, Chi) - Not only is Marcus Robinson emerging as a serious force, WR Macey Brooks has shown ability this year. It all adds up to minuscule production for Engram. 

Rick Mirer (QB, NYJ) - Parcells said he will make changes, and one has to think he means at QB. His job is safe for this week, but that's about it. 

O.J. Santiago (TE, Atl) - He has been completely invisibly as a receiver.