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October 15, 1999
Eye on GameDay
By Greg Ambrosius
Editor, Fantasy Sports Magazine
Greg Ambrosius is the editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine, the only national newsstand publication devoted exclusively to the growing Rotisserie and fantasy sports market.

After five weeks of the NFL season, we've learned one interesting point: There's very little separating most teams. In fact, last week 10 of the 14 games were decided by three points or less, the most ever in an NFL weekend. A total of 37.5 percent of all games played thus far have been decided by three points or less, an amazing statistic.

This is parity, folks, something former commissioner Pete Rozelle often strived for. The old saying that "on any given Sunday any team can beat another team" has never been more accurate than now. After just five weeks of the season, there remains only one undefeated team (surprising St. Louis) and only one winless team (expansion Cleveland).

But as close as most teams are overall, it's also apparent that teams with key playmakers are the ones which will remain standing when the regular season is complete. Stars like Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe and Brad Johnson have been carrying their teams -­ and those fantasy teams which also have them ­- to victories. You definitely have to have that dominant star to win in the NFL these days.

While Favre has led the Packers to three last minute victories and is a candidate to win his fourth MVP Award, no one has been as efficient as St. Louis QB Kurt Warner. The former Arena Football League star has emerged as the most dominant player in the game, throwing 14 TD passes in four games, including five on Sunday during the Rams' 42-20 win over San Francisco. He completed 20 of 23 passes for 323 yards and is completing 72.6 percent of his passes. Amazing.

Unfortunately, injuries continue to take a toll on the game's top stars. Terrell Davis, the consensus top pick in fantasy football, was lost the week before when he suffered a knee injury and this week teammate Shannon Sharpe suffered a broken collarbone and will be out for the rest of the season. Dallas WR Michael Irvin also suffered a spinal injury and will be out 6-8 weeks, while several quarterbacks will miss this week's games with injuries.

The key to winning this year's Super Bowl is keeping your stars healthy. The same can be said for fantasy football. With that in mind, let's take a look at all of the matchups for Week 6. The three teams with byes this week include Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, so make sure you have Mike Alstott, Errict Rhett and Derrick Alexander on your bench.

Miami (3-1) at New England (4-1)
This battle for the AFC East lead pits two teams on opposite emotional curves. The Patriots suffered their first loss of the season at Kansas City, 16-14, when Adam Vinatieri's 32-yard field goal in the final seconds of the game hit the right upright and bounced backward, while Miami is riding high after Dan Marino led the Dolphins to a dramatic 34-31 win at Indianapolis with a TD pass to Oronde Gadsden in the final seconds of play.

Marino was the key to the Dolphins' road win as he completed 25 of 38 passes for 393 yards and two TDs. WR Tony Martin had his best game since joining the Dolphins, catching 10 passes for 166 yards and a TD, often spreading out the field with deep routes, while Gadsden had four catches for 123 yards and a TD. RB Cecil Collins also picked up the running game as he rushed 21 times for 76 yards and a TD. Look for Collins to play a more prominent role in this offense from here on out.

The Patriots looked shaky in their loss at Kansas City, turning the ball over four times. Drew Bledsoe threw his first interception since the season opener, but still completed 23 of 45 passes for 334 yards and two TDs. Bledsoe has thrown for 1,599 yards and eight TDs this year and ranks third in the league, although he's completed only one pass to TE Ben Coates during the last two weeks. WR Terry Glenn leads the league with 37 catches for 636 yards and had a 49-yard TD catch against the Chiefs, while WR Tony Simmons had seven catches for 107 yards. Simmons will start this week since WR Troy Brown is out four weeks with a knee injury.

Both teams have tough run defenses and poor rushing attacks, so expect this game to be an aerial show between Marino and Bledsoe. Miami's defense allows only 79.5 yards per game on the ground, while New England has given up only 98.8 yards per game rushing. New England is averaging 383.0 yards per game on offense, but only 79.4 of those are on the ground, while Miami has averaged only 82.3 yards per game rushing. The key will be putting pressure on Marino, who can still dissect any defense if he has time. Same with Bledsoe. I like the Dolphins in this game even though they are on the road for the second straight week, but load up your roster with many of these top stars. 
Players to Watch: Terry Glenn, Cecil Collins, Tony Martin.

St. Louis (4-0) at Atlanta (1-4)
Are the Rams this year's version of the '98 Falcons, a team that puts it all together and goes on to earn a surprising spot in the Super Bowl? I wouldn't go that far just yet, but as long as Warner stays red-hot, there's no stopping this offense.

Warner likely went undrafted in most fantasy leagues across the country this year, but after throwing three TD passes in the opener he became the top pickup on the free agent wire. Now he's the top player in fantasy football, throwing for 1,217 yards, an average of 304 yards per game. He leads the league with a near-perfect 136.0 QB Rating and has only three INTs to go along with his 14 TDs. Ironically, the Rams had only 12 TD passes all of last year. His favorite target is Isaac Bruce, who has 22 catches for 446 yards and six TDs, averaging 20.3 yards per reception. Bruce used a new training regimen this offseason to keep his hamstrings from popping and the extra work has paid off in a big way as he had four TD catches in Sunday's big win over the Niners. RB Marshall Faulk suffered a pulled muscle in his hip during that game and was held to only six yards on seven carries, but he will play this week.

The Falcons had this type of season last year when Chris Chandler threw 25 TD passes and Jamal Anderson rushed for 1,846 yards and 14 TDs, enroute to winning the NFC title. But nothing has gone right for this team since Eugene Robinson was arrested the night before the big game. Anderson is out for the year with a knee injury, Chandler remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and the passing game sorely misses the speed of Tony Martin, who was released at the end of the season. Yes, Atlanta defeated New Orleans last week, 20-17, for its first win of the year, but this team is going nowhere fast with Tony Graziani and Ken Oxendine in the backfield.

The Rams have the third-ranked offense in the NFL (401.8 yards per game; 299.8 passing) and the fourth-ranked defense and should have a field day against the Falcons, even if Chandler returns (he practiced Wednesday and is probable). The Rams' gravy train continues to roll through the NFC West.
Players to Watch: Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce.

Seattle (3-1) at San Diego (3-1)
Now who would have guessed at the beginning of the year that these two teams would be battling for the NFC West title? Head coach Mike Holmgren has done a good job turning the Seahawks around, while the Chargers are riding one of the best defenses in the league to the top of the standings.

This will be a true test for the Seahawks' offense, which is still adjusting to Holmgren's changes. Seattle has averaged only 2.8 yards per carry this year, while San Diego allows only 67.3 yards rushing per game and 2.66 yards per carry. Holmgren is so upset with his running game that he has considered splitting time in the backfield this week between Ricky Watters and Ahman Green, hoping that Green adds some speed to the offense. The lack of a running game has put added pressure on QB Jon Kitna, who has been solid in Holmgren's conservative game plan, throwing for 680 yards and four TDs. Derrick Mayes and Sean Dawkins each have two TD receptions, but this offense sorely misses WR Joey Galloway.

The Chargers defeated Detroit last week, 20-10, behind QB Erik Kramer, who replaced Jim Harbaugh. Kramer, who completed 20 of 34 passes for 208 yards, will start again this week as Harbaugh is still hampered by two cracked ribs. RB Natrone Means missed last week's game with an ankle injury, but appears ready for this week's game. Seattle allows 128.3 yards per game on the ground, so having a healthy Natrone is critical for the Chargers.

This has the makings of a low-scoring defensive battle as neither offense has that impact playmaker that is needed to make a difference. Give the edge to the Chargers at home as their defense could outscore their offense this week. 
Players to Watch: John Carney, Natrone Means.

Green Bay (3-1) at Denver (1-4)
This is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXII, but so much is different today. The Broncos no longer have John Elway, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe or LB John Mobley. Despite upsetting Oakland last week 16-13 for their first win of the year, it's still a lost cause in Denver.

Bubby Brister was scheduled to replace Brian Griese at QB last week, but he suffered a rib injury in practice on Friday and was pulled from the starting lineup during warmups. He missed practice on Wednesday and it looks like Griese will get the start again. Griese was solid last week even without Sharpe, completing 17 of 29 passes for 234 yards and a TD. RB Olandis Gary replaced Derrick Loville, who pulled a hamstring in practice last week, and rushed 20 times for 64 yards. Yes, there are plenty of new faces in Denver these days.

As for the Packers, it's the same stars pulling out the same dramatic victories. The Packers have the top-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 414.0 yards per game, including a league-best 310.5 yards passing per game. Brett Favre is having an MVP-caliber year, throwing for 1,315 yards and seven TDs despite playing with a swollen right thumb. Favre took a beating on Sunday night against Tampa Bay but still practiced on Wednesday and will start his 114th straight game, two games short of the NFL record for QBs. The Packers are throwing more deep passes under offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis this year and Sunday night Favre had nine passes of 18 yards or more as he threw for 390 yards. WR Antonio Freeman had seven catches for 152 yards and two TDs and now has 24 catches for 404 yards and three TDs, while WR Billy Schroeder (20-372-1) had his best game of his career, catching seven passes for 158 yards. He's questionable this week with an ankle injury. RB Dorsey Levens also ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing with 379 yards and a 4.4 yards per carry average and has become a valuable receiver, catching 24 passes for 240 yards. This team is loaded with playmakers, but it all starts with Favre.

In years past, this would be a classic matchup, but injuries have depleted the Broncos of their top stars. Favre won't be as effective this week with the injured thumb, so look for Levens to carry the ball 20-25 times as the Packers do just enough to earn another close win.
Players to Watch: Dorsey Levens, Brett Favre, Ryan Longwell.

Oakland (2-3) at Buffalo (4-1)
The Bills have used an aggressive defense and the leadership of QB Doug Flutie to rise to the top of the AFC East standings. The Bills rank fifth defensively (259.8 yards per game) and have the top-ranked defense against the run, allowing only 62.4 yards per game. Flutie -­ the little general ­- always seems to make the right decisions as he completed 21 of 32 passes in last week's 24-21 win against Pittsburgh, throwing for 261 yards and three TDs. Flutie has thrown for 1,082 yards and six TDs this year, including two to Eric Moulds and two to TE Jay Riemersma. RB Antowain Smith is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and now shares time in the backfield with Jonathan Linton, who is a tougher goal-line back.

The Raiders have found new ways to lose ball games and last week's 16-13 loss to Denver was a classic. The Broncos lost their QB, RB and TE, yet still intercepted Rich Gannon twice to steal the win on the road. The Raiders were held to only 55 yards rushing, averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. Tyrone Wheatley has replaced Napoleon Kaufman in the backfield and has rushed for 306 yards and three TDs, while Gannon has six TD passes, including two to Tim Brown. Brown leads the team with 32 catches for 365 yards, yet he still doesn't have a 100-yard receiving game this year. Defensively, the Raiders rank second against the run (63.0 yards per game), but they've allowed 251.6 yards per game through the air.

Neither team will be able to run the ball in this game, so the outcome will be decided by the QBs. In that scenario, Flutie wins out easily.
Players to Watch: Doug Flutie, Eric Moulds.

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Cincinnati (1-4)
Two teams that have struggled for victories the last two years square off in this AFC Central division battle. The Steelers have lost eight of their last 10 regular season games, while Cincinnati lost 17 of their last 20 games before edging the Browns last week, 18-17.

Rookie QB Akili Smith led the Bengals to their first victory of the year as he marched the team 80 yards in the final minutes of the game, capped off by a two-yard touchdown pass with five seconds left. Smith completed 25 of 41 passes for 221 yards with two touchdowns to WR Carl Pickens. WR Darnay Scott had eight receptions for 110 yards and now is second in the NFL with 34 catches for 417 yards, although he still doesn't have a TD catch this year. RB Corey Dillon also leads the NFL in rushing with 423 yards and one TD as the Bengals rank third in rushing offense at 136.8 yards per game. Although Smith has been tabbed as the starting QB for the rest of the year, the team has no plans to trade Jeff Blake at this point.

The Steelers lost their last five games last year and haven't gotten on track yet this year. QB Kordell Stewart had his best game of the season at Buffalo, completing 21 of 29 passes for 216 yards and two TDs, but the Steelers were uncharacteristically held to 48 yards rushing on 23 carries. RB Jerome Bettis gained only 24 yards on 13 carries and is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry this year with just one TD. Can you say fantasy bust? The only thing holding this team together is a defense that ranks second in the NFL at 248.8 yards per game, including only 156.6 through the air. The defense has been so dominant that Pittsburgh leads the AFC in time of possession (33:32) despite a struggling offense.

Pittsburgh should give the rookie QB a tough lesson this week, especially if it can shut down Dillon. It's time for Stewart to lift this proud franchise out of its doldrums and put a big hurt on the Bengals.
Players to Watch:Kordell Stewart, Troy Edwards.

Cleveland (0-5) at Jacksonville (4-1)
This is the biggest mismatch of the week, although the Jaguars' offense isn't a guarantee against anyone. Can someone please explain how the Jags' offense can go from one of the best in the NFL to one of the most conservative? Oh, sorry, that's my job.

Okay, here's the lowdown: Mark Brunell was right, head coach Tom Coughlin really can't call plays. This 'dink and dunk' offense has to go -­ and right now. QB Mark Brunell's fantasy value is nil as he currently has three TD passes in five games. THREE! Yes, Fred Taylor has a hamstring injury and will likely miss this week's game after sitting out Monday's 16-6 win at New York, but James Stewart has filled in admirably and currently has 406 yards and four TDs. And Jimmy Smith has been solid (31-422-1), although he has seen double coverage almost every game. The stars are still in place (although TE Damon Jones is out 2-6 weeks with a knee injury), even though the play calling remains overly conservative. The Browns have allowed 416.0 yards per game, so if the Jaguars don't turn it up a notch this week they never will.

Maybe Coughlin has just fallen so in love with his defense that he doesn't want to take any chances on offense. The Jags have the top-ranked defense in the NFL, allowing only 234.8 yards per game, including a league-best 147.2 yards per game through the air. The Jaguars lead the league with 11 takeaways, including eight interceptions. It's hard to imagine the Browns, who have scored only 43 points and average less than 176 yards a game on offense, doing anything against this defense, so forget about QB Tim Couch or any of the other Cleveland starters. No, this will be a blowout as Brunell finally becomes a fantasy league factor. 
Players to Watch: James Stewart, Jimmy Smith.

Indianapolis (2-2) at New York Jets (1-4)
Don't worry about the Colts. Despite suffering a last second loss to Miami last week, the Colts are still a serious contender for the AFC East title. The Jets, on the other hand, well, stick a fork in them.

Even head coach Bill Parcells realizes this team is history after its pathetic Monday night performance against Jacksonville. 

"It seemed everyone had his time where he wasn't technically efficient," Parcells said. "That led to the tremendous ineptitude."

Parcells promised to make changes, but he will stick with QB Rick Mirer this week. Mirer completed 19 of 38 passes for 164 yards, but had two interceptions and was incapable of looking past the primary receiver. Forget about him. Unfortunately, the lack of a passing game has affected the values of WR Keyshawn Johnson and RB Curtis Martin.

If you're looking for fantasy value, look to the Colts instead. QB Peyton Manning had another big game last week, completing 17 of 24 passes for 274 yards and three TDs. Manning leads the AFC with 10 TDs as the Colts are averaging 293.8 yards passing per game. WR Marvin Harrison leads the NFL with seven TD receptions and has 31 catches for 513 yards, while RB Edgerrin James rushed for 81 yards last week, giving him 357 for the year.

The Jets are no match for the Colts at this point, especially with Mirer at QB, so expect plenty of production out of Indy's top three stars. 
Players to Watch: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison.

Minnesota (2-3) at Detroit (2-2)
Will the real Minnesota Vikings please stand up? Is this really a legitimate Super Bowl contender or just a pretender -­ a one year wonder if you will?

The lack of offensive firepower is being blamed on the change at offensive coordinator, but it starts and ends at the quarterback position. Randall Cunningham isn't getting it done and he looks shaky in the pocket. Does it seem like Randall wants to get rid of every pass before he gets hit? Sure seems that way to me. Cunningham has thrown for 1,397 yards and eight TDs, but he also has eight INTs, including three last week. Cunningham tried so hard to get the ball to WR Randy Moss last week that it threw off the entire offense, while WR Cris Carter remains hobbled by a hip injury. RB Robert Smith is also hobbled by a hip injury and is questionable for this week's game. As if the injuries aren't enough, now there's reports that Moss wants to play in the NBA. Oh, yeah, that's a sure sign of a pretender.

The Lions, on the other hand, have dropped two straight since opening the season with wins over Seattle and Green Bay. They were held to 229 yards in last week's 20-10 loss to San Diego, accumulating only 37 yards rushing on 24 carries. Barry, where are you? QB Charlie Batch threw for 230 yards, but this offense needs a playmaker. WR Herman Moore practiced this week and could see his first action since Week 1, which would definitely help out. The Vikings have allowed 274.2 yards per game through the air, so look for Batch and WR Germane Crowell to have good games.

But it won't be enough as the Vikings finally get back on track with a win as Moss will be the difference in this key game.
Players to Watch: Randy Moss, Randall Cunningham.

Philadelphia (1-4) at Chicago (3-2)
Okay, okay, so the Eagles won their first game under head coach Andy Reid. But any team that scores one TD in their last 58 possessions -­ that being the game winning 28-yard TD pass from Doug Pederson to Charles Johnson ­- doesn't deserve consideration in fantasy football. Pederson starts again this week, so the only player worth considering is RB Duce Staley, who rushed for 110 yards last week and now has 331 for the year.

Instead, look to the Bears for scoring opportunities. This unpredictable offense will have a new look this week as rookie Cade McNown replaces Shane Mathews at QB. Mathews suffered a hamstring pull in Sunday's 24-22 upset win at Minnesota and is definitely out this week. McNown completed nine of 14 passes for 97 yards in reserve, but gets his first career start against the Eagles. K Chris Boniol has been signed to replace the injured Jeff Jaeger, while WR Curtis Conway (29-310-4) is also hobbled by an ankle injury, but he will start. The Eagles have allowed 136.6 yards rushing per game, so expect RB Curtis Enis (112-342-1) to have his best game of the year.

Give the Eagles credit for pulling off the upset win last week, but don't expect miracles two weeks in a row. The Bears are believing in themselves under head coach Dick Jauron and an easy victory this week will make believers out of even more people.
Players to Watch: Curtis Enis, Curtis Conway.

Washington (3-1) at Arizona (2-3)
After a bye last week, the surprising Redskins are ready to inflict pain on the Cardinals in the Valley of the Sun. The Redskins have the second-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 412.5 yards per game and Brad Johnson is an MVP candidate. Through four games, Johnson has completed 77 of 122 passes for 1,191 yards and nine TDs with no interceptions. Stephen Davis leads the NFL with nine rushing TDs and ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing with 400 yards. The big playmaker this year is WR Michael Westbrook, who leads the league with a 21.0 yards per reception average (21-442-4). This offense has it all, but it faces an Arizona defense that ranks second in the NFL against the pass (154.0 yards per game). Expect Davis to carry much of the offensive load this week.

Offensively, the Cardinals lack plenty. QB Jake Plummer hasn't recovered from a pre-season thumb injury and now he has sore ribs and a hip pointer, WR Rob Moore will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury and the offensive line continues to struggle. RB Adrian Murrell is averaging only 2.3 yards per carry, but will remain the starter for the Cardinals, who are averaging only 69.0 yards rushing per game. Plummer has thrown 12 INTs thus far and only three TDs, making him the lowest ranked starting QB in the NFL.

The Cardinals are a mess and the Redskins will make sure that their lost season enters a new stage of dismay. 
Players to Watch: Brad Johnson, Stephen Davis.

Tennessee (4-1) at New Orleans (1-3)
The Saints are so banged up that they could use some of those draft picks they gave up for RB Ricky Williams, who will likely miss this week's game with an assortment of injuries. Not only is Williams hurt, but so is QB Billy Joe Hobert (shoulder) and TE Cam Cleeland (knee). Hobert missed practice this week and will likely be replaced by Danny Wuerffel. Williams would be replaced by Lamar Smith.

Forget about that mess and instead load up on Titans, who should roll to an easy victory this week. Yes, they struggled last week against Baltimore in the 14-11 win, and yes, this team still has trouble rushing the ball (2.7 yards per carry). But QB Neil O'Donnell has been so good that it hasn't even missed Steve McNair. O'Donnell has completed 62.6 percent of his passes and has thrown for 1,085 yards and six TDs, mostly to Kevin Dyson (26-352-2), Frank Wycheck (24-234-0) and Yancey Thigpen (23-442-3). Although Eddie George is averaging only 2.9 yards per carry, he has five TDs, including three via the air. New Orleans will blitz often and give O'Donnell fits, but the lack of any consistent offense will be the Saints' doom.
Players to Watch: Al Del Greco, Eddie George.

Carolina (1-3) at San Francisco (3-2)
George Seifert returns to San Francisco with a Carolina team that lacks the offensive firepower of his old Niners championship teams. For that matter, the Niners lack the firepower of those old championship teams.

The big news this week is that QB Steve Young is finally contemplating retirement after his fourth concussion in the last three years. Young won't play this week, so Jeff Garcia gets the start again. Garcia completed 22 of 36 passes for 233 yards in the shootout against the Rams, but had three key interceptions. WR Terrell Owens had six catches for 60 yards, but remains slowed by a leg injury and has only three TD receptions. RB Charlie Garner had 13 carries for 52 yards, but Lawrence Phillips rushed for the only offensive touchdown of the game. This offense misses Young badly and is averaging only 184.0 yards passing per game, but the fact that its defense is allowing 254.0 yards per game passing is even more distressing. This team is nowhere near championship form and won't contend for a Super Bowl berth without their Hall of Fame QB.

Seifert knew that the Panthers weren't a title contender when he took the reins this off-season, but he's been surprised by the poor defensive effort thus far. Carolina ranks 30th against the run (150.0 yards per game) and has only one interception. Offensively, RB Tim Biakabutuka has added a spark, averaging a league-best 10.8 yards per run (34-366) with five TDs, while Steve Beuerlein has six TD passes, five of them to TE Wesley Walls (11-113-5). That's it.

Seifert's return will draw interest to this game, but all of the injuries will hurt the results. Give the Niners the edge, but by the slightest of margins. 
Players to Watch: Lawrence Phillips, Charlie Garner.

Dallas (3-1) at New York Giants (2-3)
Speaking of injuries, the Cowboys are still reeling from the loss of WR Michael Irvin, who suffered a neck injury when he landed awkwardly on the turf. Eagles fans cheered the moment, but this was serious stuff. In fact, Irvin is contemplating retirement and will be out 6-8 weeks at the minimum. Ernie Mills replaces Irvin in the starting lineup and Rocket Ismail will have to take on a more prominent role. Irvin's loss certainly affected the Cowboys in their loss at Philly and it will be a big loss the rest of the way. Look for veterans Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman to take on more responsibility down the stretch.

The Giants have their own problems before this Monday Night matchup, the least of which is finding a quality QB. Kerry Collins looked bad in the 14-3 loss at Arizona (24-38-202) and will be replaced by Kent Graham, who missed last week's game with a concussion. Gary Brown rushed for 67 yards and has added some life to the offense, but it doesn't matter if the QB can't spread the ball around. Stay away from these players if at all possible.

This has the potential to be a Monday night snoozer, especially for fantasy-leaguers. Maybe Deion Sanders will return a punt for a TD on Prime Time.
Player to Watch: Emmitt Smith.